Factor-Augmenting Technical Change: An Empirical Assessment

Starting from a system of factor demands, an empirical model that allows estimating factor-augmenting technical change is derived. Factor-augmenting technical change is defined as the improvement in factor productivities that can occur either exogenously or endogenously, with changes in other macroeconomic variables. This paper provides additional estimates for the substitution possibilities among inputs and it offers new empirical evidence on the direction and sources of factor-augmenting technical change, an issue that has not yet been explored by the empirical literature on growth determinants. The empirical findings suggest that technical change is directed. Technical change tends to be more energy-saving than capital- and labour-saving. Both R&D investments and international trade are important determinants of growth in energy and capital productivity whereas technical change for labour is positively related to education expenditure. Therefore, the sources of factor-augmenting technical change go beyond R&D investments, as proposed in the theory of directed technical change, and they differ across inputs. In other words, not only is technical change directed, the sources of factor-augmenting technical change appear to be input specific.Factor-Augmenting Technical Change, Technology Spillovers, Panel Data

International Technology Spillovers in Climate-Economy Models: Two Possible Approaches

This paper analyzes two possible methodologies of modeling international technology spillovers in a climate-economy CGE model. Technological change, by affecting productivity, energy and carbon intensity, eventually influences the amount of CO2 emissions, the costs and the timing of the policies targeted at their reduction. Technological change is here defined so as to include also the diffusion and adoption phase. In an increasingly integrated world, new products and technologies developed in one region will eventually diffuse internationally. The two approaches described in this paper are based on two mechanisms used to model technological change in climate models: learning curves, total factor productivity and the autonomous energy efficient improvement parameter. This paper considers spillovers mediated by international trade in capital goods. In particular, it looks at how imports machinery and equipments from the OECD countries can affect the technology variables related to CO2 emissions: learning rates in the first approach, productivity, energy and carbon intensity in the second one.Climate Policy, International Trade, Learning Curves, International Technology Spillovers, Biased Technical Change

Factor-Augmenting Technical Change: an Empirical Assessment

This paper estimates factor-specific technical change and input substitution using a structural approach. It improves upon the existing literature by introducing technology drivers for factor productivities and by assessing the impact of endogenous technical change on the estimates of substitution elasticities. The empirical results suggest that factor-productivities are indeed endogenous. In addition, technology drivers are factor-specific. Whereas R&D investments and machinery imports are important determinants of energy and capital productivity, education is found to be statistically related to labour productivity. The rate of energy-augmenting technical change is larger than that of either labour or capital. By contrast, the productivity of these two factors grows at similar rates. Estimates of the elasticities of substitution are within the ranges identified by previous literature. In addition, our results suggest that endogenous technical change lowers the estimated values of the substitution elasticity.Technical change, Technology spillovers, Endogenous growth, Panel regression

Fairness, Credibility and Effectiveness in the Copenhagen Accord: An Economic Assessment

State-of-the-art literature on climate change policies has proposed numerous approaches for the Post-Kyoto agreement. However, in analysing the outcome of negotiations, the feeling is that a huge gap exists between policy makers and scientists. This paper tries to bridge this gap by providing a critical and comparative analysis of the Copenhagen Accord provisions, linking them to a part of the climate-economy literature. It assesses Copenhagen outcome in terms of economic efficiency, environmental effectiveness and political credibility. Our conclusion suggests that the Copenhagen Accord succeeded in considering some of the climate policy principles, namely credibility, equity and fairness. First, the change in political leadership indicates a more collaborative mood. Regarding equity and fairness, developing countries obtained an explicit commitment by developed countries for technology, but especially financial transfers, though on a conditional basis. The major limitation of the Accord is the way it addresses the trade-off between politically viability, thus implicitly fairness, and economic and environmental effectiveness. Therefore, future negotiations should deal with the eventuality of a global temperature increase above the 2 degrees, even in the presence of successful global mitigation.International Climate Policy Architecture, Integrated Assessment Model, Post-Kyoto

A Good Opening: The Key to Make the Most of Unilateral Climate Action

In this paper we argue that when a subgroup of countries cooperate on emission reduction, the optimal response of non-signatory countries reflects the interaction between three potentially opposing factors, the incentive to free-ride on the benefits of cooperation, the incentive to expand the demand of fossil fuels, and the incentive to adopt cleaner technologies introduced by the coalition. Using an Integrated Assessment Model with a game theoretic structure we find that cost-benefit considerations would lead OECD countries to undertake a moderate, but increasing abatement effort (in line with the pledges subscribed in Copenhagen). Even if emission reductions are moderate, OECD countries find it optimal to allocate part of their resources to energy R&D and investments in cleaner technologies. International spillovers of knowledge and technology diffusion then lead to the deployment of these technologies in non-signatory countries as well, reducing their emissions. When the OECD group follows more ambitious targets, such as 2050 emissions that are 50% below 2005 levels, the benefits of technology externalities do not compensate the incentives deriving from the lower fossil fuels prices. This suggests that, when choosing their unilateral climate objective, cooperating countries should take into account the possibility to induce a virtuous behaviour in non-signatory countries. By looking at a two-phase negotiation set-up, we find that free-riding incentives spurred by more ambitious targets can be mitigated by means of credible commitments for developing countries in the second phase, as they would reduce lock-in in carbon intensive technologies.Technology Spillovers, Climate Change, Partial Cooperation

An Analysis of Adaptation as a Response to Climate Change

Climate change is likely to have relevant effects on our future socio-economic systems. It is therefore important to identify how markets and policy jointly react to expected climate change to protect our societies and well-being. This study addresses this issue by carrying out an integrated analysis of both optimal mitigation and adaptation at the global and regional level. Adaptation responses are disentangled into three different modes: reactive adaptation, proactive (or anticipatory) adaptation, and investments in innovation for adaptation purposes. The size, the timing, the relative contribution to total climate-related damage reduction, and the benefit-cost ratios of each of these strategies are assessed for the world as a whole, and for developed and developing countries in both a cooperative and a non-cooperative setting. The study also takes into account the role of price signals and markets in inducing and diffusing adaptation. This leads to two scenarios: A pessimistic one, in which policy-driven adaptation bears the burden, together with mitigation, of reducing climate damage; and an optimistic one, in which markets also autonomously contribute to reducing some damages by modifying sectoral structure, international trade flows, capital distribution and land allocation. For all scenarios, the costs and benefits of adaptation are assessed using WITCH, an integrated assessment, intertemporal optimization, forward-looking model. Extensive sensitivity analysis with respect to the size of climate damages and of the discount rate has also been carried out.Climate change impacts, mitigation, adaptation, integrated assessment model

Human Capital Formation and Global Warming Mitigation: Evidence from an Integrated Assessment Model

Based on recent empirical evidence, this paper includes human capital and knowledge in an integrated assessment model and it assesses the interplay between innovation, human capital, climate change, and education policies. Results indicate that climate policy stimulates a dedicated form of energy-knowledge without reducing generic R&D investments. Since advancements in labour productivity have a negative impact on the environment because labour is assumed to be complement to energy, climate policy reduces education investments, on which human capital is built. However, a policy mix combining climate and education targets shows that education and climate goals can be coupled incurring in small additional economic penalties.climate policy, innovation, human capital

Climate Policy and the Optimal Balance between Mitigation, Adaptation and Unavoided Damage

It has become commonly accepted that a successful climate strategy should compound mitigation and adaptation. The accurate combination between adaptation and mitigation that can best address climate change is still an open question. This paper proposes a framework that integrates mitigation, adaptation, and climate change residual damages into an optimisation model. This set-up is used to provide some insights on the welfare maximising resource allocation between mitigation and adaptation, on their optimal timing, and on their marginal contribution to reducing vulnerability to climate change. The optimal mix between three different adaptation modes (reactive adaptation, anticipatory adaptation, and investment in innovation for adaptation purposes) within the adaptation bundle is also identified. Results suggest that the joint implementation of mitigation and adaptation is welfare improving. Mitigation should start immediately, whereas adaptation somehow later. It is also shown that in a world where the probability of climate-related catastrophic events is small and where decision makers have a high discount rate, adaptation is unambiguously the preferred option. Adaptation needs, both in developed and developing countries, will be massive, especially during the second half of the century. Most of the adaptation burden will be on developing countries. International cooperation is thus required to equally distribute the cost of adaptation.Climate Change Impacts, Mitigation, Adaptation, Integrated Assessment Model

Climate Change, Energy Demand and Market Power in a General Equilibrium Model of the World Economy

Future energy demand will be affected by changes in prices and income, but also by other factors, like temperature levels. This paper draws upon an econometric study, disentangling the contribution of temperature in the determination of the annual regional demand for energy goods. Combining estimates of temperature elasticities with scenarios of future climate change, it is possible to assess variations in energy demand induced (directly) by the global warming. We use this information to simulate a change in the demand structure of households in a CGE model of the world economy, in a set of assessment exercises. The changing demand structure triggers a structural adjustment process, influencing trade flows, regional competitiveness of industries and regions, and welfare. We also consider the possible existence of imperfect competition in the energy markets, analyzing the impact of changes in energy demand with an alternative model version, in which energy industries are modeled as Cournot oligopolies.Climate Change, Energy, Computable General Equilibrium Models, Imperfect Competition

Climate Policy and the Optimal Balance between Mitigation, Adaptation and Unavoided Damage

It has become commonly accepted that a successful climate strategy should compound mitigation and adaptation. The accurate combination between adaptation and mitigation that can best address climate change is still an open question. This paper proposes a framework that integrates mitigation, adaptation, and climate change residual damages into an optimisation model. This set-up is used to provide some insights on the welfare maximising resource allocation between mitigation and adaptation, on their optimal timing, and on their marginal contribution to reducing vulnerability to climate change. The optimal mix between three different adaptation modes (reactive adaptation, anticipatory adaptation, and investment in innovation for adaptation purposes) within the adaptation bundle is also identified. Results suggest that the joint implementation of mitigation and adaptation is welfare improving. Mitigation should start immediately, whereas adaptation somehow later. It is also shown that in a world where the probability of climate-related catastrophic events is small and where decision makers have a high discount rate, adaptation is unambiguously the preferred option. Adaptation needs, both in developed and developing countries, will be massive, especially during the second half of the century. Most of the adaptation burden will be on developing countries. International cooperation is thus required to equally distribute the cost of adaptation.Climate change impacts, mitigation, adaptation, integrated assessment model